STRATEGIC ASSET ALLOCATION FOR LONG‐TERM INVESTORS: PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY AND PRIOR INFORMATION

We study the effect of parameter uncertainty on the long‐run risk for three asset classes: stocks, bills and bonds. Using a Bayesian vector autoregression with an uninformative prior we find that parameter uncertainty raises the annualized long‐run volatilities of all three asset classes proportionally with the same factor relative to volatilities that are conditional on maximum likelihood parameter estimates. As a result, the horizon effect in optimal asset allocations is much weaker compared to models in which only equity returns are subject to parameter uncertainty. Results are sensitive to alternative informative priors, but generally the term structure of risk for stocks and bonds is relatively flat for investment horizons up to 15 years. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

REPORTING GUIDELINES FOR META-ANALYSIS IN ECONOMICS

Meta-analysis has become the conventional approach to synthesizing the results of empirical economics research. To further improve the transparency and replicability of the reported results and to raise the quality of meta-analyses, the Meta-Analysis of Economics Research Network has updated the reporting guidelines that were published by this Journal in 2013. Future meta-analyses in economics will be expected to follow these updated guidelines or give valid reasons why a meta-analysis should deviate from them.     

Consumers’ Willingness to Pay for Sustainable Seafood Made in Europe

Sustainability of increasing relevance also for seafood markets. The aim of this contribution is to analyze consumer preferences and their willingness to pay (WTP) for different sustainability claims, and to identify consumer segments according to their WTP. The contingent valuation method was applied to elicit consumers’ WTP in eight European countries. The WTP varies between seven and almost 20%, depending on attribute and country. Three consumer groups become apparent: the largest group without any additional WTP, a smaller group with a moderate additional WTP of plus 17%, and a very small group with an additional WTP of more than 40%. Clear differences between countries are obvious regarding preferences for different sustainability attributes, particularly in the segment with the highest WTP. A fraction of the consumers is willing to pay significantly higher prices for sustainably produced fish from Europe: given that trustful standards are applied and well communicated.     

(De)Politicization Dynamics in Public–Private Partnerships (PPPs): Lessons from a comparison between UK and Flemish PPP policy

This article analyses the (de)politicization dynamics in complex and technical matters like public–private partnerships, which is necessary given its social impact and budgetary consequences for the years and generations to come. The global financial crisis provides an excellent window of opportunity to present this argument, because PPP policy needs to reinvent itself. We argue that PPP policy needs to be (re)politicized at the broader societal and discursive levels, which means that their public nature is recognized and that policy alternatives are debated in the public forums. The ‘Private Finance Initiative’ reassessment process in the UK may serve as an example.     

HEGY Tests in the Presence of Moving Averages*

We analyze the asymptotic distributions associated with the seasonal unit root tests of Hylleberg et al. (1990) for quarterly data when the innovations follow a moving average process. Although both the t‐ and F‐type tests suffer from scale and shift effects compared with the presumed null distributions when a fixed order of autoregressive augmentation is applied, these effects disappear when the order of augmentation is sufficiently large. However, as found by Burridge and Taylor (2001) for the autoregressive case, individual t‐ratio tests at the semi‐annual frequency are not pivotal even with high orders of augmentation, although the corresponding joint F‐type statistic is pivotal. Monte Carlo simulations verify the importance of the order of augmentation for finite samples generated by seasonally integrated moving average processes.     

Optimal surveillance against foot‐and‐mouth disease: the case of bulk milk testing in Australia

Previous foot‐and‐mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks and simulation‐based analyses suggest substantial payoffs from detecting an incursion early. However, no economic measures for early detection have been analysed in an optimising framework. We investigate the use of bulk milk testing (BMT) for active surveillance against an FMD incursion in Australia. We find that BMT can be justified, but only when the FMD entry probability is sufficiently high or the cost of BMT is low. However, BMT is well suited for post‐outbreak surveillance, to shorten the length of time and size of an epidemic and to facilitate an earlier return to market.     

Unethical use of wildlife in tourism: what's the problem,who is responsible,and what can be done?

Wildlife tourism is a huge global market, the revenue from which can promote local livelihoods and tourist education, enact conservation, and improve animal welfare. Such benefits arise if wildlife tourist attractions (WTAs) prioritise ethical deliverables above financial profit, but recent work has shown that the majority of WTAs have substantial negative animal welfare and conservation impacts. In the absence of global regulatory authorities, tourist revenue has become the ultimate arbiter of what constitutes acceptable use of animals in WTAs. Tourists, however, are not adequate assessors of WTAs’ animal welfare and conservation impacts: they lack the specialist knowledge required and are subject to a number of psychological biases that obscure the ethical dimensions of decisions to attend particular WTAs. This inadequacy is evidenced, and compounded, by overwhelmingly positive reviews on TripAdvisor (the industry-leading review site), even for WTAs with objectively poor ethical standards. Our suggested solution is to empower tourists by presenting unequivocal assessments of WTAs' animal welfare and conservation impacts, hosted in the fora that tourists already use to make their travel decisions. We would thereby promote a subjective norm that tourists should consider and limit their individual negative impacts when choosing which WTAs to visit.     

LEGAL KNOWLEDGE AND AGILITY IN PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION

To address agility in public administration, we have developed a knowledge acquisition infrastructure for legal knowledge, based on an implementation‐oriented conceptualization of the legal system. Our objective is to reframe legal knowledge as a knowledge source in a design‐oriented task ontology, building on insights from the CommonKADS methodology for intelligent system design. The main result is to make case law and legal expert knowledge of critical incidents in organizations, two diagnostic knowledge sources underutilized in modern management and engineering, more accessible as a resource for design of agile organizational structures and intelligent systems. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Walk in Customers' Shoes: How Attentional Bias Modification Affects Ownership of Integrity-violating Social Media Posts

The number of social media posts that expose company integrity violations has increased dramatically. In response, some companies empower employees to respond to customer blogs, which requires employees to recognize the customer's perspective. We show that attentional bias modification can be used to prime employees of two global Fortune 100 companies with a self-sufficiency or empathy bias. The results indicate that narrative transportation, or the extent to which employees mentally enter the world evoked by a customer's story, mediates the effect of attentional bias on two relevant psychological ownership dimensions: acknowledgment of responsibility and willingness to respond. Participants with a self-sufficiency bias neither acknowledge responsibility nor want to respond. However, participants primed with an empathy bias take responsibility for the customer's case and respond to the integrity violation. We find evidence for two boundary conditions of this effect: (1) it strengthens when the employee perceives the customer's financial vulnerability as high and (2) it weakens when the customer is impolite in the blog post.